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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 02/14 11:45
Lackadaisical Tones Overcome Livestock Complex
Traders are weak-heartedly participating in the livestock complex as they
seem exhausted after this week's trade.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's been a slow day for the livestock complex as the market seems exhausted
after this week's trade. It wouldn't be unlikely to see some more cash cattle
trade develop in the Northern plains as the week's movement has been relatively
thin. March corn is up 3 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $5.00.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 113.98 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trailing lower into Friday's noon hour as the
market has seemed to stall. Trader's slight energy they possessed on Thursday
has stalled, and there's been virtually no more business in the cash cattle
market either. More than anything, after a week of continued pressure, the
market seems to be looking forward to the long weekend. February live cattle
are down $0.75 at $198.80, April live cattle are down $1.15 at $195.37 and June
live cattle are down $0.95 at $191.47. So far this week, Southern live trade
has been marked at $202 to $203, $3 to $4 lower than last week's weighted
averages. Northern dressed deals have been mostly $320 to $322, $5 to $7 lower
than last week's weighted average, basis Nebraska. Some more trade needs to
develop in the Northern plains as this week's movement has been very thin.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.26 ($315.14) and select down
$1.29 ($308.55) with a movement of 55 loads (37.33 loads of choice, 5.83 loads
of select, zero loads of trim and 12.09 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex has petered out as the market isn't traded nearly
as aggressively as it did on Thursday. And with the live cattle contracts
trading lower as well, it's unlikely that the market will change its direction
ahead of today's close. But what we need to monitor is whether or not the spot
March contract is going to close below its 40-day moving average. A close below
that threshold isn't a good technical sign, and currently, the market is
hovering right at that threshold. March feeders are down $1.30 at $266.67,
April feeders are down $1.05 at $266.92 and May feeders are down $0.92 at
$265.37.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex has also seemed to pause its momentum after rallying
robustly on Wednesday. With traders merely letting the contracts drift into
Friday's afternoon it's not seeming as though they regret their decision to
surpass long-term resistance earlier in the week, but instead that they'd like
to reassess the market next week and determine how much immediate upside the
market holds now. It is positive to see pork cutout values higher, as traders
desperately need to continue to see strong consumer demand domestically and
abroad. April lean hogs are up $0.27 at $93.37, June lean hogs are up $0.02 at
$105.27 and July lean hogs are up $0.02 at $105.87.
The projected lean hog index for 2/13/2025 is up $0.71 at $88.77, and the
actual index for 2/12/2025 is up $0.98 at $88.06. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.39 with a weighted average price of
$88.03, ranging from $82.00 to $92.00 on 2,270 head and a five-day rolling
average of $88.14. Pork cutouts total 167.89 loads with 158.74 loads of pork
cuts and 9.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.34, $102.21.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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